There are always wars and conflicts between nations, are we seeing something now that is worse than what we’ve seen in recent history?  Does the change of leadership in the USA in 2021 mark a shift?  Let’s take a look at major incidents and events from 2017 – 2021 and 2021 – 2024 and see what we can find. 

I am omitting ongoing conflicts that predate 2017, unless there has been something specific that has escalated in that conflict.  For example, I will not mention Taiwan and China because even though the situation is getting tenser under the Biden Administration (with more frequent airspace incursions and military exercises conducted by China), there hasn’t been anything that has changed the status quo.  I will mention Israel and Palestine because Hamas’ October 7 attack is a major escalation that has raised a baseline of violence into a full bilateral war and multilateral conflict.  The conflicts in Yemen, Libya, and Syria involve American interests and those of our geopolitical rivals, but started before 2017 and continued in some form after 2021. 

I will avoid going through negative events like the current Ethiopian Civil War, which don’t have direct negative or positive consequences for either America or our geopolitical rivals.  I will also avoid mentioning non-military items that aren’t directly positive or negative to America, even though our rivals may benefit (like the expansion of the BRICS alliance, which benefits Russia and China but does not directly threaten America’s interests or China’s successes and failures in its Belt and Road Initiative).

I am certain that I have overlooked and omitted major and minor items (good and bad) for both administrations.  All mistakes and errors are my own and made in good faith, it is impossible that I have captured every single international conflict, foreign dispute, or diplomatic success.  I would appreciate any corrections or additions to the lists below. 

Positive developments during the Trump Administration

  • Russia. One of the greatest frauds committed by the mass media upon the American population was the fabrication and relentless drumming up of the narrative that President Trump was somehow pro-Russian.  The Trump Administration took a very strong stance, concrete action, and used very specific rhetoric against Russian policies.  That administration was much more confrontational with Russia than either the previous Obama or subsequent Biden Administrations.  The outcome was that during the Trump Administration, Russia did not invade any other countries (unlike the Bush, Obama, and Biden Administrations).  Here is a list of specific things that the Trump Administration did to directly weaken or counteract Russia – this article has more details around these points.
    • The US implemented nearly 2 dozen sets of new sanctions covering dozens of companies and people.
    • Begged/threatened/cajoled NATO members to increase their defense spending, deployed additional troops to Poland and Baltic countries, increased funding for the European Deterrence Initiative, and organized some of the largest joint exercises and patrols that NATO has ever done.
    • Warned allies about developing closer ties and dependencies with Russia (specifically Germany and Nord Stream).
    • Passed CAATSA as a tool for further sanctions targeted at Russia, successfully deterring significant arms purchases by India and Egypt.
    • Expelled dozens of Russian diplomats/intelligence agents.
    • Left military treaties that Russia was violating or that benefited Russia disproportionately to America (INF, Open Skies).
    • Engaged Russian mercenaries directly (completely kicking their butts) in Syria at the Battle of Khasham in 2018.
  • Iran. The Trump Administration undid much of the Obama Administration’s Iranian policy.  This included exiting the JCPOA agreement, reinstating economic sanctions on Iran, and declaring the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (an organization parallel to Iran’s military that conducts military operations in other countries and trains/arms groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and others) to be a terrorist organization to limit its financial capabilities.  It can be argued whether these actions are positive or negative on their own, but they are definitely positive when compared to what has followed and replaced those policies.  The Trump Administration played a strong hand against the Iranian government and greatly limited its access to financial resources and ability to generate income.  There can be debate and a lot of articles written about the failure of the “maximum pressure campaign” but it is very evident that there was far less Iran-backed violence in the world during the Trump Administration compared with Biden’s administration.
  • ISIS. During Trump’s administration, ISIS ceased to exist as a territorial organization, ruling over and administering cities.  Due to military involvements by many parties, including those backed by America and America directly, the remnants of ISIS were relegated to being a terrorist, guerrilla organization.
  • Doha Accord. The US and the Taliban, in 2020, negotiated an end to the US occupation of Afghanistan.  This agreement called for a withdrawal of US forces by May 2021.  
  • Abraham Accords. The US facilitated, in 2020, recognition and normalization between Israel and the Muslim countries of Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan.  This was a step towards increased peace and cooperation between Israel and countries historically antagonistic towards it existence.
  • Washington Agreement. The US facilitated, in 2020, the normalization of economic ties between Kosovo and Serbia.
  • The Quad. After nearly a decade long hiatus, a security partnership between the US, Australia, India, and Japan was restarted in 2017.  This is a vehicle for the countries to discuss common defense and security topics, especially as a counter to Chinese capabilities in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Negative developments during the Trump Administration

  • Second Nogorno-Karabakh War in 2020.  While this does not directly impact America, nor does it strengthen America’s geopolitical rivals, this is still a negative development as Azerbaijan used offensive force to resolve a border dispute that was previously stable for decades.  This item is included because it is part (but not the whole) of a precedent of military force used against a neighboring country with no or minimal consequences from the international community.
  • Iranian attack on US soldiers in Iraq in 2020.  In response to the assassination of a leading Iranian military figure, Iran launched a missile attack at US troops stationed in Iraq.  Over 100 US soldiers suffered brain injuries in what was at the time the largest missile attack against US forces.  US troops being directly attacked by an adversary is something that is incredibly negative for the country.
  • India and China skirmishes in the Aksai Chin area.  The Aksai Chin area is a contested border area between China and India.  While the troops on both side agree not to carry firearms in order to reduce the probability of a lethal confrontation, there have been several skirmishes between the countries from 2017 to 2020 that have resulted in fatalities.  China is also expanding its infrastructure in areas claimed by India.  While this doesn’t have any immediate impact to America, it is generally a negative for us when a geopolitical rival uses aggressive force to expand its capabilities.

Positive developments during the Biden Administration

Negative developments during the Biden Administration

  • Afghanistan withdrawal.  This was an unmitigated disaster, both practically and in terms of image, for America.  The Biden Administration delayed the withdrawal of American forces by 4 months compared to the timeframe that was negotiated in the Doha Accord.  At the time of the withdrawal specified in the original Doha Accord, the Afghan government controlled more than half of the country.  The US could’ve withdrawn in an organized and coherent way.  When the US actually withdrew, the legitimate Afghan government was non-existent and the leaders of that government fled the country. The Taliban steamrolled through the country and the US fled in a chaotic, unprepared way (abandoning billions of dollars of military equipment for the Taliban’s benefit).  The image of the US ignominiously, chaotically running away and leaving panicked civilians at the Kabul Airport projected American weakness and incompetence to our allies and foes alike.  Videos of Afghans clinging to airborne American cargo planes and plummeting to their deaths will be an enduring testament of this failure.  There are several very interesting static and interactive maps chronicling the Taliban’s ascendency linked in the Appendix.
  • Russian invasion of Ukraine.  This is the penultimate example of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy.  Russia started the largest war in Europe since World War 2 under Biden’s watch.  Russia invaded and stole parts of Ukraine under the Obama Administration previously.  Biden, Obama, and their foreign policy teams fundamentally don’t understand the mindset of the Russian leadership and project American weakness to a rival that only respects strength, resulting in consequences where hundreds of thousands of people have died.  While it is easy to criticize Biden for projecting weakness that invited the 2022 invasion in the first place, it is just as easy and maybe even more relevant to criticize the response after the invasion.  The half-hearted response of partial measures, actions taken too late to have a maximum impact, and a reactive instead of proactive posture send a terrible message to the rest of the world.  Not taking decisive action to stop Russia in an expedient, forceful, and effective way shows any country that previously thought about taking military action against others that it may pay off to do so since the American response will be predictable and minimal.  American cowardly self-deterrence, fear of escalation, and lack of purpose are giant welcome signs for countries like China and Iran to be militarily aggressive against America’s interests.
  • Emboldening Iran.  The Biden Administration went back to the same Iran playbook as that of the Obama Administration and reversed course from the approach of the Trump Administration.  Where Trump financially starved the Iranian government, the Biden Administration made it easier for Iran to obtain and use financial resources and Iran used those resources to directly fund attacks against America and American allies.  The Biden Administration’s policies have led to an unprecedented amount of violence and instability fomented by Iran.
    • Oct 7 Hamas (supported, funded, and armed by Iran) attack on Israel.
    • Yemeni Houthi (supported, funded, and armed by Iran) attacks on civilian shipping – this led to the Biden Administration masterstroke to deploy the US Navy to the region and expend over $1B of munitions to defend commercial shipping for the primary benefit of Europe and China.
  • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  During the Trump Administration, relations with Saudi Arabia were good and there was significant progress on getting a historic peace deal together between Israel and Saudi Arabia.  The Biden Administration made a complete reversal on this and was antagonistic to Saudi Arabia.  This derailed the Israel peace deal, led the Saudis to get closer to Russia, and even opened the door for China to act as a mediator between Iran and the KSA.  Now, the Biden Administration is trying to undo the damage it has done and reforge the ties the USA and KSA previously had.
  • Increased tensions between Kosovo and Serbia, including attacks on NATO peacekeepers in Kosovo.
  • Chinese influence and aggressiveness in the Pacific.  China signed a defense treaty with the Solomon Islands, kicking off an American scramble to fortify its own diplomatic efforts in the region.  China has also started being more aggressive to Filipino commercial, military, and Coast Guard ships in Filipino-claimed territory in the South China Sea.
  • Tension develops between Russia-backed Venezuela and Guyana, leading to the US and UK to deploy Navy assets to the area.  It is bad for America when countries are emboldened (and supported by our geopolitical rivals) to invade their neighbors and steal their land, especially in the Western Hemisphere.  This fortunately did not escalate into an armed conflict.
  • Africa has always been a geopolitically unstable area.  But there have recently been many more negative developments in the region that strengthen our rivals while weakening America’s standing and influence.  The 2023 coup in Gabon is not included on this list because its effect on bilateral relations with Russia and impact on the West cannot be determined right now.  The 2021 coup in Guinea is not included in this list since although the military deposed a democratically elected president, it did not have any direct negative implications for America nor positive outcomes for America’s rivals.
    • Sudan.  This country has been especially unstable and has a long history of coups and civil wars.  The most recent civil war started in 2023, when a Russian-backed paramilitary wing of the government went to war with the Western-backed military of the de facto government.  This is certainly not good for Sudan nor for American interests.
    • Burkina Faso.  A 2022 coup led by the military resulted in a Russian-backed and supported government.  This government has since agreed to purchase Russian arms and taken actions hostile to the West.  It is not good for America when geopolitical rivals make allies at our expense.
    • Chad.  A 2021 coup led the military to unconstitutionally install the son of the deceased leader as the ruler of the country.  This leader has made moves against the West like expelling US and French troops from the country while forming stronger ties with Russia.  This is not good for America, especially since the US lost access to a strategically significant air base while Russia is now in a position to start profiting from access to Chad’s natural resources.
    • Mali.  A 2021 coup led by the military overthrew the government established in a 2020 military coup.  Yes, you read that correctly.  The new government pivoted sharply away from security cooperation with France and embraced Russia.  This has allowed Russia access to Mali’s natural resources while also opening the door for crimes against humanity to be committed by Russian mercenaries against Mali’s civilian population.
    • Niger.  These words will be very repetitive by now.  A 2023 coup led by the military overthrew the democratically elected leader of Niger.  The military is backed by Russia and the new government quickly made anti-West moves.  The French military was kicked out in 2023 and the American military was kicked out in 2024.  This coup itself almost resulted in a large-scale regional war.  The major geo-political organization in the area, The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), threated to deploy its combined militaries into Niger to throw out the junta and reinstate the previous President.  In response, the other neighboring countries that recently had Russian-supported military coups (Mali and Burkina Faso) stated that they would fight the rest of the ECOWAS block if they intervened in Niger.  Fortunately, no action was taken by either side and a war did not break out.
  • Burmese Coup & Civil War.  At the very start of Biden’s term in 2021, a military junta overthrew the democratically elected, pro-Western government of Myanmar.  It is generally a bad thing for America when friendly, democratic governments are overthrown by force by regimes that are unfriendly to the West. 
  • Nogorno-Karabakh again.  Azerbaijan again used offensive force in 2023 to regain control of the Nogorno-Karabakh region, driving out 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the region.  Not directly a threat to America nor a boon for our rivals, but not a good precedent overall.

When looking at the events around the world and comparing what happened across the span of two different administrations, it becomes clear that the Biden Administration has presided over a lot more chaos, war, and instability.  It is very reasonable to assess that the Biden Administration’s policies have alienated our allies, emboldened and supported our enemies, projected weakness through inaction and fearful self-deterrence, and resulted in a very high level of death and destruction across the world.  At the very least, it is evident that the Biden Administration has not made things better than they were before.

Appendix:

Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan Maps